Feekes Growth Stages in Winter Wheat
Critical level for GDD (NDVI versus Yield)
Large, E.C. 1954. Growth stages in cereals. Plant Pathol. 3:128-129.
According to Large (1954) cereals develop as follows via Feekes Growth Stages
S T E M E X T E N S I O N
H E A D I N G
F L O W E R I N G (WHEAT)
R I P E N I N G
•Exp. 222, r2= 1.305+0.0204(GDD>0), when GDD<106; plateau for r2 at 0.87 when GDD>=106
Coefficients of determination (r2) were recorded for linear regression equations from NDVI data collected over the entire growing season (Figure x). This included a range in GDD>0 of 50 to 126. These coefficients were then paired with the number of days from planting to sensing where GDD>0. Once the r2 values were plotted against GDD>0, the objective was to determine the point at which r2 values were maximized and to simultaneously determine a point where changes further into the season were capped.
A linear plateau model was then used to determine the point at which r2 values no longer increased or no longer showed a benefit in terms of predicting yield. This question can go the other direction in that it helped to determine how early yield could be accurately predicted and not sacrifice precision.
Using the linear plateau model, the earliest number of days from planting to sensing where GDD>0, and that would be required to accurately predict wheat grain yields was 87.
It should be noted that the data also suggests that yield should be predicted prior to reaching 112 days (GDD>0) where after that time yield prediction was diminished.